A modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur suggests that the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India may begin around June 22 and peak from mid to late August.
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, was recently published on the preprint repository MedRxiv. It utilized a statistical model to predict that the potential new wave could last for four months.
Researchers from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at IIT Kanpur, including Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh, indicated that the severity of the fourth wave will be influenced by the emergence of a new variant and the vaccination status nationwide.
According to the authors, data suggests that the fourth wave in India will start 936 days after the initial data availability date of January 30, 2020. Therefore, they project that the fourth wave will commence on June 22, 2022, peak on August 23, 2022, and end on October 24, 2022.
However, the researchers cautioned that the impact of a potential new variant of the coronavirus could significantly alter their analysis, depending on factors such as infectivity and fatality rate.
In addition, the effectiveness of vaccinations, including first, second, or booster doses, may also play a crucial role in determining the likelihood and severity of infection during the fourth wave.
World Health Organization officials recently warned that the emergence of new Covid variants is likely, with the potential for increased transmissibility.
The research team previously accurately predicted the peak of the third wave of the pandemic in India based on trends observed in other countries affected by the Omicron variant.
Using statistical methodology, the researchers forecasted the occurrence of the fourth wave in India based on Covid-19 data, suggesting that this approach could also be applied to predict future waves in other countries.
They noted that several countries have already experienced third waves of Covid-19, and some, like South Africa and Zimbabwe, are now facing fourth and subsequent waves.
The authors emphasized the importance of using data-driven predictions to prepare for and respond to future waves of the pandemic, highlighting the accuracy of their previous forecasts for India.
Recent data from the Union health ministry shows a decrease in daily coronavirus infections in India, with total cases reaching 4,29,24,130.
